Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Steady growth can be expected when the system is adjusted

Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Steady growth can be expected when the system is adjusted
The event company released the third quarter report for 2019, achieving a total revenue of 635 in 19Q1-Q3.0.9 billion (+15.53%), net profit attributable to mother 304.5.5 billion (+23.13%), deducting non-net profit 305.3.4 billion (+22.48%). 3Q19 achieved total revenue of 223.3.6 billion (+13.28%), net profit attributable to mother is 105.0.4 billion (+17.11%), deducting non-net profit of 105.3.0 billion (+16.12%). Investment 无锡夜网 points Q3 revenue is slightly lower than expected, and direct sales channels are underway.19Q3 achieved revenue of 223.36 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.28%, of which Moutai’s income is 190 ppm, an increase of 12 per year.8%, series wine income 24 ppm, an increase of 22 for the year.8%; by channel, direct channel revenue was US $ 1.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, the distribution channel revenue was 19.9 billion yuan, an increase of 13 year-on-year.6%.We believe that the reason for the low single-quarter forecast is that 1) the overall volume is in line with expectations. This year’s volume was 7,400 tons in mid-autumn and 7,000 tons in 18 years.2) During the evolution of the system, the proportion of Q3 direct sales increased with low expectations. Compared with 19H1, Q3 direct sales revenue increased by only 3 pct to 7%. The market expects that the actual sales of direct sales will be too high. In fact, the first batch of hypermarkets in June invited tenders.Completed (600 tons in total). In August, Wumart, China Resources and other supermarkets have been put on the shelves, but our channel tracking has also been reached in the early stage. By mid-August, the promotion rate of direct sales channels was still slow.Qualifications and other phenomena (for example, Wumart limited members gradually pay a certain amount of money and 3499 months of continuous shopping can only get 1499 Feitian replacement); August Maotai Group marketing company plan just landed, according to the plan, 19 years to add newThe amount of related-party transactions of marketing companies is about 30-33 trillion, which corresponds to an increase in Moutai transaction volume of 1460-1600 tons. This part of the incremental amount can be released in the middle of late August.On the whole, when the Q2-Q3 channel adjustment is underway, we expect that the volume of direct sales channels will gradually mature and accelerate in Q4. 19Q1-Q3 gross profit margin 91.49% (+0.37pct), of which 19Q3 gross margin is 90.79% (-0.65pct), it is expected that the Q3 Feitian account will be relatively high, which does not exclude the increase in the non-standard share of Q4, and the increase in the proportion of series wine may also have an impact;12% (-1.06pct), management expense ratio (including research and development expenses) 6.62% (-0.11pct), and jointly drive a net margin of +2.33pct to 53.19%. The decrease in advance receipts is in line with the rhythm of revenue recognition, and the net cash flow of operating activities is stable.Q3 final advance payment 112.6 trillion, -10 trillion ring, mainly due to the decrease in the number of dealers, and most of the dealers have already paid 19H2 plan funds to the company in advance, with the delivery, revenue is gradually recognized. The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was 32 trillion, 天津夜网 mainly due to the decrease in the increase in the amount of funds held by the company’s holding subsidiary Guizhou Maotai Group Finance Co., Ltd. and other member units of the group company, resulting in a decrease in net increase in customer deposits and interbank deposits of US $ 12.9 billion.Excluding the current part, Q3’s net cash flow from operating activities was 101 trillion, a decrease of 6 trillion from the previous quarter, and its performance was stable.Q3 advance payment increased by 6 trillion, mainly due to advance payment of land requisition in Renhuai City and Xishui County. The Q4 direct sales are under heavy volume, and the approval price stabilizes and returns to rationality.Dealer channel clearance adjustment is nearing completion, with a net decrease of 14 in Q3.The second-half direct channel program was launched to give market confidence; during the eleventh period of Tmall Supermarket, Suning Tesco officially sold Feitian Moutai at the price of 1499 yuan. During this period, 6.36 million customers booked Feitian Moutai on two platforms.It is expected that direct sales in 19Q4, group purchase, e-commerce, and supermarkets will accelerate the volume increase. With the volume increase, the approval price will gradually return to rationality and stability. Our channel found that the recent Feitian income price is basically in the range of 2200-2350.Consistent with consumer interests, brand interests, and conducive to long-term development.2020 is the year of Moutai infrastructure construction. From the perspective of channel prices and performance planning, it is more inclined to seek stability rather than fast. From the perspective of high terminal prices, supply and demand are still the main contradictions. The value of the brand is not diminished and the certainty of long-term performance is not diminished. Profit forecast and investment grade: It is estimated that the company’s revenue will reach 891/1036/1188 billion in 19-21, with a long-term growth of 15% / 16% / 15%; net profit attributable to mothers will reach 431.51 / 511/59 billion, an increase of 22% / 19% / 17%; corresponding PE is 35/30 / 25X, maintaining the “Buy” level. Risk warning: the risk of falling demand for high-end wines, the management of direct sales channels is less than expected, food safety risks, and the growth of series of wines does not meet expectations.